Week Four: Sneaky Picks
Another week in the books, and we are starting to see track-able trends beginning. I like starting this post with the results from the previous week's projections. It shows the ones I got right, the ones I got close, and just as importantly; the ones I whiffed on. So keeping up with that trend, let's take a look at last week's sneaky picks and how they fared.
Andy Dalton:
My projection: 289 yards, two touchdowns, one interception.
Actual stat-line: 212 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions.
Close enough for the stat-line and for the re-emergence of Andy Dalton as the Red-Rifle instead of the Red-Regret. Andy Dalton was someone I was high on heading into this season. He's got some serious weapons in a healthy A.J. Green and the (hopeful) emergence of rookie running-back Joe Mixon. If Tyler Eifert could stay healthy, he would also be in that conversation. Moving forward with Dalton, he's a streamable QB2 with upside. I believe he's got the garbage out of system.
Rashard Higgins
My projection: Ten targets, eight receptions for 88 yards.
Actual stat-line: Six targets, two receptions for ten yards.
Well, I can definitely say I missed on that one. While the target share was close to my projection, Higgins failed to reel several close passes in. After reviewing some of the film, this is equal parts Higgins and Kizer. Kizer missed Higgins on a few, and Higgins didn't reel in some passes he should have. I expect Higgins to remain involved.
DeSean Jackson
My projection: Six targets, four receptions for 89 yards.
Actual stat-line: Seven targets, four receptions for 84 yards and he added a touchdown.
Can't get it much closer than that, eh? If you started him based on last week's article, you are welcome. Jackson has a career of boom-or-bust games. I like him in this offense, and I am projecting a more stable floor for him in Tampa Bay.
Jack Doyle
My projection: Eight targets, seven receptions for 80 yards.
Actual stat-line: Two receptions on five targets for sixteen yards.
In a game where Brissett discovered that he had a stud receiver in TY Hilton, I missed on this one. Hilton came alive in this matchup and for people who believe in the "start your studs" mantra, it paid off. Doyle should remain a low end TE1 for rest of season, but he flopped on this one big time.
Let's jump right in to this weeks sneaky starts.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins - TE - NY Jets
I'm actually a little sick to my stomach recommending an offensive player from the Jets. I've stayed away from Jermaine Kearse even though he's had a few decent games. At this point, I'm not high on the Jets from any standpoint, and have never thought Kearse was a solid, every week starter for fantasy relevance. Seferian-Jenkins is another story.
I wrote a piece for Last Word on Pro Football, at the beginning of the season, and Seferian-Jenkins was one of my bold predictions.
"Granted, he still has a two-game suspension to get through, but once he returns to the field, he should be a steady target over the middle."
The rest of the article can be found here.
In his first game back from suspension he was targeted six times. There are not a slew of receivers to talk about in the Jets offense, and the passes have to go somewhere. In a year where the tight end position has been mostly unattractive, Seferian-Jenkins looks to be a decent add moving forward based on target volume. He may be the best pass-catcher on this offense.
My projection: Seven receptions on eight targets for 59 yards.
Jaron Brown - WR - Arizona Cardinals
Last week, I bought into J.J. Nelson and started him. For those who are unaware of the outcome last week, he put up a big, fat, juicy, goose-egg. Nasty business. He's a little nicked up, as is John Brown. Jaron filled the two-spot nicely last week with six targets, and had 11 the week before. With both John Brown and Nelson dealing with injury, Jaron looks like a steady ppr option.
My projection: Seven receptions for 71 yards.
Chris Carson - RB - Seattle Seahawks
There hasn't been anything exciting or trustworthy from the Seattle backfield. The offensive line is struggling to protect Russell Wilson, much less open lanes for whoever is handling the half-back position. Eddie Lacy hasn't shown any ability to excel with the touches he's had. Rawls has been injured or ineffective. C.J. Prosise is banged up. Last week Chris Carson came in managed 34 yards on 11 carries and 18 yards on two receptions along with a receiving touchdown.
It's nearly impossible to predict how effective he will be this week against the Colts. It looks like he's slated to be the starter against a mediocre run defense. If the volume is there, Carson will end up as an RB2 by default.
This is not a sexy pick for me between it being the fourth back in the rotation and an ineffective offensive line; but fantasy football is a game of volume. In this game Chris Carson should seen enough volume to be worth the start.
My projection: 16 carries for 58 yards, 4 receptions for 18 yards, and one touchdown.
Sterling Shepard - WR - NY Giants
At the beginning of the season, I wasn't very hopeful for Shepard this year. With the addition of Brandon Marshall as a red-zone threat, I thought it would take significant looks away from Shepard so I steered clear. After the first three weeks, it's becoming clear that Shepard has a solid role in this offense. I don't believe that Shepard is going to get the first or even the second read for red-zone targets, but he's showing that he can still find his to six points.
With Shepard lining up mostly from the slot, and Eli Manning getting rid of the ball quickly, it puts Shepard on the weekly radar in PPR formats. Touchdowns are the hardest thing to predict in fantasy football, but targets are not. Moving forward, Shepard should be owned, and started as an almost weekly flex play, especially in PPR formats.
My projection: seven targets, five receptions for 74 yards.
As always, thanks for reading! If you like this article please comment, +1, or subscribe. Enjoy your football.
Last Week's Recap
Andy Dalton:
My projection: 289 yards, two touchdowns, one interception.
Actual stat-line: 212 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions.
Close enough for the stat-line and for the re-emergence of Andy Dalton as the Red-Rifle instead of the Red-Regret. Andy Dalton was someone I was high on heading into this season. He's got some serious weapons in a healthy A.J. Green and the (hopeful) emergence of rookie running-back Joe Mixon. If Tyler Eifert could stay healthy, he would also be in that conversation. Moving forward with Dalton, he's a streamable QB2 with upside. I believe he's got the garbage out of system.
Rashard Higgins
My projection: Ten targets, eight receptions for 88 yards.
Actual stat-line: Six targets, two receptions for ten yards.
Well, I can definitely say I missed on that one. While the target share was close to my projection, Higgins failed to reel several close passes in. After reviewing some of the film, this is equal parts Higgins and Kizer. Kizer missed Higgins on a few, and Higgins didn't reel in some passes he should have. I expect Higgins to remain involved.
DeSean Jackson
My projection: Six targets, four receptions for 89 yards.
Actual stat-line: Seven targets, four receptions for 84 yards and he added a touchdown.
Can't get it much closer than that, eh? If you started him based on last week's article, you are welcome. Jackson has a career of boom-or-bust games. I like him in this offense, and I am projecting a more stable floor for him in Tampa Bay.
Jack Doyle
My projection: Eight targets, seven receptions for 80 yards.
Actual stat-line: Two receptions on five targets for sixteen yards.
In a game where Brissett discovered that he had a stud receiver in TY Hilton, I missed on this one. Hilton came alive in this matchup and for people who believe in the "start your studs" mantra, it paid off. Doyle should remain a low end TE1 for rest of season, but he flopped on this one big time.
Let's jump right in to this weeks sneaky starts.
Week Four: Sneaky Starts
Austin Seferian-Jenkins - TE - NY Jets
I'm actually a little sick to my stomach recommending an offensive player from the Jets. I've stayed away from Jermaine Kearse even though he's had a few decent games. At this point, I'm not high on the Jets from any standpoint, and have never thought Kearse was a solid, every week starter for fantasy relevance. Seferian-Jenkins is another story.
I wrote a piece for Last Word on Pro Football, at the beginning of the season, and Seferian-Jenkins was one of my bold predictions.
"Granted, he still has a two-game suspension to get through, but once he returns to the field, he should be a steady target over the middle."
The rest of the article can be found here.
In his first game back from suspension he was targeted six times. There are not a slew of receivers to talk about in the Jets offense, and the passes have to go somewhere. In a year where the tight end position has been mostly unattractive, Seferian-Jenkins looks to be a decent add moving forward based on target volume. He may be the best pass-catcher on this offense.
My projection: Seven receptions on eight targets for 59 yards.
Jaron Brown - WR - Arizona Cardinals
Last week, I bought into J.J. Nelson and started him. For those who are unaware of the outcome last week, he put up a big, fat, juicy, goose-egg. Nasty business. He's a little nicked up, as is John Brown. Jaron filled the two-spot nicely last week with six targets, and had 11 the week before. With both John Brown and Nelson dealing with injury, Jaron looks like a steady ppr option.
My projection: Seven receptions for 71 yards.
Chris Carson - RB - Seattle Seahawks
There hasn't been anything exciting or trustworthy from the Seattle backfield. The offensive line is struggling to protect Russell Wilson, much less open lanes for whoever is handling the half-back position. Eddie Lacy hasn't shown any ability to excel with the touches he's had. Rawls has been injured or ineffective. C.J. Prosise is banged up. Last week Chris Carson came in managed 34 yards on 11 carries and 18 yards on two receptions along with a receiving touchdown.
It's nearly impossible to predict how effective he will be this week against the Colts. It looks like he's slated to be the starter against a mediocre run defense. If the volume is there, Carson will end up as an RB2 by default.
This is not a sexy pick for me between it being the fourth back in the rotation and an ineffective offensive line; but fantasy football is a game of volume. In this game Chris Carson should seen enough volume to be worth the start.
My projection: 16 carries for 58 yards, 4 receptions for 18 yards, and one touchdown.
Sterling Shepard - WR - NY Giants
At the beginning of the season, I wasn't very hopeful for Shepard this year. With the addition of Brandon Marshall as a red-zone threat, I thought it would take significant looks away from Shepard so I steered clear. After the first three weeks, it's becoming clear that Shepard has a solid role in this offense. I don't believe that Shepard is going to get the first or even the second read for red-zone targets, but he's showing that he can still find his to six points.
With Shepard lining up mostly from the slot, and Eli Manning getting rid of the ball quickly, it puts Shepard on the weekly radar in PPR formats. Touchdowns are the hardest thing to predict in fantasy football, but targets are not. Moving forward, Shepard should be owned, and started as an almost weekly flex play, especially in PPR formats.
My projection: seven targets, five receptions for 74 yards.
As always, thanks for reading! If you like this article please comment, +1, or subscribe. Enjoy your football.
Comments
Post a Comment