Five Running Backs to avoid in 2017
In this week's article, we dive into running backs, and which ones to potentially avoid for the 2017 season. Not all of these are going to be ones necessarily to avoid drafting, some are simply ones to avoid drafting too high, or paying too much on auction day depending on which draft style you're a part of.
1. Ezekiel Elliot.
I'm not saying to avoid this one, I am saying to be cautious taking him too high or spending too much on him based on one blurb that came out this week. In a Sirius/XM fantasy show earlier this week, Adam Schefter had this to say about Ezekiel Elliot:
"I would just say this. It's definitely a factor, and if I were drafting today, I would be hesitant to. (draft him) I've spoken to some people within the league who, during the course of the offseason, got a sense that some form of discipline could happen." via Jimmy Kempski of Phillyvoice.com
This is not a sophomore slump situation, this is a possible league discipline for some off-field issues that could have an effect on playing time.
So while I believe in the back, I believe in the offensive line, I believe in the first round pick if there wasn't a possible league discipline situation involved. Keep up with your homework on him before committing that first round pick.
2. Jordan Howard
Jordan Howard exploded onto the fantasy scene last year and I was a thrilled recipient of his production. Howard finished as the RB9 in 2016 and had the second most rushing yards in the league at 1,313. Moving forward, what can we realistically expect in 2017?
Well, there's been roster moves in Chicago that could change the way defenses approach the Bears. At the QB position, the new starter is a career backup in Mike Glennon or an untested rookie, Mitch Trubisky. Their main targets are going to be Cameron Meredith or Victor Cruz. I don't see too many teams being truly afraid of the aerial attack which means they're going to focus on stacking the box and making trouble for the best offensive player on the team. The offensive line hasn't beefed up enough to not worry about a decrease in production.
The other side of the coin, is we've seen impressive rookie campaigns from other running backs over the last several years. Last year's sophomore bust was Todd Gurley. Before him was Zac Stacy, Trent Richardson, Jeremy Hill, and Doug Martin.
Be on the lookout for the slump to take hold of Howard this season.
3. Doug Martin
Speaking of the Muscle Hamster. I'll admit, I was a believer in Martin. I enjoyed his success two seasons ago, only to be served up a huge entrée of disappointment last year. Here's the baseline of what to expect from Martin; he's either going to rush for 400 yards, or 1,400 yards according to his career stats. There's seemingly no serviceable middle ground.
He's going to start the year with a 3 game suspension, so you can almost rule out the 1,400 yard season possibility. That being said, he's not on my draft table this season.
4. Jay Ajayi
Here's the one that's going to get me some negative feedback, so hear me out before firing an angry tweet my direction.
I'm not saying to avoid Ajayi. I am saying, not to lose a more productive pick chasing him. He's currently on most ADP's as 8th overall. Which, to me, is a little higher than he should be.
Here's why he's listed as 8th. Last season he was fantastic on paper, but the stats can be a little misleading. Let's take a closer look.
Ajayi averaged 16.65 fantasy points in the last 11 weeks of the season. After removing his first three games, he had 193.4 total fantasy points. However, 112.2 of those fantasy points came in just four games against horrible run defenses. In the other eight games, he averaged only 10.15 fantasy points.
Ajayi averaged 4.89 YPC last season which is great. However, outside of those four games I just mentioned, his average fell to 3.56 YPC which is not.
So, I'm not down on the guy, I'm just down on how highly he's currently being ranked and drafted. The other little facet to keep in mind is that he's not really involved in the passing game, which can hurt if you're in a half point or full point PPR league.
5. Todd Gurley
Yeah, it's kind of cheesy to pick last season's big bust and put him on a possible bust list, but what can I say? I don't see it getting better. He didn't break 900 yards on the ground and his YPC were 3.2 which is .2 yards above the abysmal mark.
I think the offensive line is part of the problem, and so far I haven't seen anything that makes me think it's going to improve this year. Adding Lance Dunbar could mean a drop in Gurley's receptions as well.
He's still listed at 18th overall, which is surprising. I'd let someone else overdraft on him.
As always, if you found this article helpful, leave a plus one or a comment! Thanks for reading and may the Fantasy Gods smile upon you.
1. Ezekiel Elliot.
I'm not saying to avoid this one, I am saying to be cautious taking him too high or spending too much on him based on one blurb that came out this week. In a Sirius/XM fantasy show earlier this week, Adam Schefter had this to say about Ezekiel Elliot:
"I would just say this. It's definitely a factor, and if I were drafting today, I would be hesitant to. (draft him) I've spoken to some people within the league who, during the course of the offseason, got a sense that some form of discipline could happen." via Jimmy Kempski of Phillyvoice.com
This is not a sophomore slump situation, this is a possible league discipline for some off-field issues that could have an effect on playing time.
So while I believe in the back, I believe in the offensive line, I believe in the first round pick if there wasn't a possible league discipline situation involved. Keep up with your homework on him before committing that first round pick.
2. Jordan Howard
Jordan Howard exploded onto the fantasy scene last year and I was a thrilled recipient of his production. Howard finished as the RB9 in 2016 and had the second most rushing yards in the league at 1,313. Moving forward, what can we realistically expect in 2017?
Well, there's been roster moves in Chicago that could change the way defenses approach the Bears. At the QB position, the new starter is a career backup in Mike Glennon or an untested rookie, Mitch Trubisky. Their main targets are going to be Cameron Meredith or Victor Cruz. I don't see too many teams being truly afraid of the aerial attack which means they're going to focus on stacking the box and making trouble for the best offensive player on the team. The offensive line hasn't beefed up enough to not worry about a decrease in production.
The other side of the coin, is we've seen impressive rookie campaigns from other running backs over the last several years. Last year's sophomore bust was Todd Gurley. Before him was Zac Stacy, Trent Richardson, Jeremy Hill, and Doug Martin.
Be on the lookout for the slump to take hold of Howard this season.
3. Doug Martin
Speaking of the Muscle Hamster. I'll admit, I was a believer in Martin. I enjoyed his success two seasons ago, only to be served up a huge entrée of disappointment last year. Here's the baseline of what to expect from Martin; he's either going to rush for 400 yards, or 1,400 yards according to his career stats. There's seemingly no serviceable middle ground.
He's going to start the year with a 3 game suspension, so you can almost rule out the 1,400 yard season possibility. That being said, he's not on my draft table this season.
4. Jay Ajayi
Here's the one that's going to get me some negative feedback, so hear me out before firing an angry tweet my direction.
I'm not saying to avoid Ajayi. I am saying, not to lose a more productive pick chasing him. He's currently on most ADP's as 8th overall. Which, to me, is a little higher than he should be.
Here's why he's listed as 8th. Last season he was fantastic on paper, but the stats can be a little misleading. Let's take a closer look.
Ajayi averaged 16.65 fantasy points in the last 11 weeks of the season. After removing his first three games, he had 193.4 total fantasy points. However, 112.2 of those fantasy points came in just four games against horrible run defenses. In the other eight games, he averaged only 10.15 fantasy points.
Ajayi averaged 4.89 YPC last season which is great. However, outside of those four games I just mentioned, his average fell to 3.56 YPC which is not.
So, I'm not down on the guy, I'm just down on how highly he's currently being ranked and drafted. The other little facet to keep in mind is that he's not really involved in the passing game, which can hurt if you're in a half point or full point PPR league.
5. Todd Gurley
Yeah, it's kind of cheesy to pick last season's big bust and put him on a possible bust list, but what can I say? I don't see it getting better. He didn't break 900 yards on the ground and his YPC were 3.2 which is .2 yards above the abysmal mark.
I think the offensive line is part of the problem, and so far I haven't seen anything that makes me think it's going to improve this year. Adding Lance Dunbar could mean a drop in Gurley's receptions as well.
He's still listed at 18th overall, which is surprising. I'd let someone else overdraft on him.
As always, if you found this article helpful, leave a plus one or a comment! Thanks for reading and may the Fantasy Gods smile upon you.
Comments
Post a Comment