Week Five: Sneaky Picks

Last Week's Results

This week was little rough on my projections for sneaky players to start with only one player of the four meeting expectations. This goes to show that it's a hard gig to analyze the player, team, match up, and try to extrapolate a viable assessment. It IS difficult, as I'm learning. Just ask my money-league team that's still suffering from the loss of  David Johnson
So before we get into this week's sneaky picks, let's have a look at last week's and see how I fared.

Austin  Seferian-Jenkins

My projection: Eight targets, 7 receptions for 59 yards.

Actual Stat-line: Four targets, four receptions, for 46 yards.

I was a little off on this one. ASJ has 10 targets through his first two games back. He's worth a stash and a start during bye-week streaming at what has been arguably a poor season so far for the position.

Jaron  Brown

My projection: Seven receptions for 71 yards.

Actual stat-line: Eight receptions on 12 targets for 105 yards.

Not bad, I have to say that I really enjoy it when a player exceeds my projection. Jaron will continue to be in the mix, but his target share may decrease if a healthy John  Brown is on the field.

Chris  Carson

My projection: Sixteen carries for 58 yards. Four receptions for 18 yards and one touchdown.

Actual Stat-line: Twelve carries for 42 yards. I think Carson may have exceeded projections also, if not for a season-ending injury. Carson had a complicated leg injury that involved a broken bone in his leg and ankle. He's had surgery and has been placed on IR.

Proving once again, touchdowns and injuries are the hardest thing to predict in fantasy football.

Sterling  Shepard

My projection: Seven targets, five receptions for 74 yards.

Actual Stat-Line: Five targets, five receptions for 54 yards.

Obviously, I was wee-bit off on this one. Shepard is a solid option for PPR in this offense. With the complete lack of a run game thus far, Eli  Manning is having to chuck it up a ton.

Let's jump right into this week's sneaky picks.

Week Five: Sneaky Picks

Hunter  Henry - Tight End - LA Chargers

Hunter  Henry's lack of involvement to this point of the season is baffling, to say the least. When he's targeted, he catches his passes. On his 10 targets through the season, he's reeled in nine of them. The real problem is he hasn't been targeted enough. It's not that Antonio  Gates is stealing the targets either. Philip Rivers just hasn't been involving the position enough.

This week the Chargers are traveling cross-country to face the New York Giants. The Giants defense has been absolutely putrid against the tight end position. Through the first four games of the season the Giants have seen 35 targets to opposing tight ends. Those targets have produced 27 receptions for 301 yards and five touchdowns.

This is a risky start, I'll admit. It's hard to tell someone to start a player that has only 10 targets through four games. It's also risky because Gates is still involved and still a red-zone target. If Henry can't get it going in this game, he becomes waiver-wire fodder.

I'm rolling him as a hopeful DFS play this week.

My projection: Six targets for 71 yards and one touchdown.

Brian  Hoyer - Quarterback - San Francisco 49ers

Wow...it's really difficult to type that out. I mulled over this one multiple times throughout the week as I was working on rankings and dissecting the match ups. Frankly, I keep coming back to it. Here's the thing, Hoyer is a competent quarterback. Through the first four weeks he has faced some top-ranked defenses. Here's the list: Panthers, Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals. That's a rough start for any quarterback, much less one who's team is rebuild mode.

This week, the 49ers take on the Indianapolis Colts. Their defense has been fairly solid against the run game, but porous through the air.

In this game, Hoyer is a sneaky start for 2QB leagues and a moderate-risk-high-reward DFS play. 

My projection: 279 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

Donte  Moncrief - Wide Receiver - Indianapolis Colts

Moncrief has almost been irrelevant to this point in the season. Granted, the Colts are playing without Andrew  Luck. Brissett seems to be acclimating himself to the Colts scheme and showing improvement. In a match up this week against the 49ers, it may be a week to remember Moncrief. I'm projecting a huge game from T.Y.  Hilton this week, but I think that means a solid outing from Moncrief as well. Hilton is going to draw the top coverage and the most attention. The 49ers have allowed big games for Jaron  Brown (8-105) and Robert Wood (6-108) both of which are second-read options on their respective offenses. This sets up Moncrief for a follow-up to last weeks 3-30-1 line.
While I'm not expecting a week-winning effort, I think Moncrief is worth a look for bye-week fill in for a decent week in PPR formats.

My projection: Five receptions on 7 targets for 68 yards.

Kendall  Wright - Wide Receiver - Chicago Bears

Allow me to preface this by saying, I probably wouldn't start Wright this week. This is more of a stash than a start. The Bears have decided to re-locate Mike  Glennon to a less turn-over-prone spot, the bench. In steps Mitch  Trubisky the 2017 first round pick. What's interesting about this is that fans have been calling for Mitch since week one, after going nearly atomic-riot over the pick when it happened earlier this year. I live near Chicago and therefore see plenty of it on local sports news, and there were boos, videos of people nearly losing their minds, and plenty of questions that started with "What were they thinking?!" When the Bears picked Trubisky. Ah, how fickle the masses can be, but I digress...

First of all, this is really a case of throwing the kid to the wolves, or more appropriately, the Vikings. Minnesota's defense is a legit top-five NFL defense and they will be primed to put some pressure on Trubisky in his first career NFL start.

However, I think Trubisky is going to be more willing to operate like a passer than a game manager. Kendall  Wright is the only receiver on this team that would be a no-question starter on any other NFL team. I believe Trubisky will target him early and often and this will be the beginning of putting Wright back into the WR4/5 conversation.

Again, this is more of a stash pick than a start one, but if he blows up in the next week or two, you may find yourself in line to pick him up from the waiver wire. If you have the bench depth, he's worth a stash for a possible value pickup later on in the season.

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